California’s relocation gap is shrinking modestly.
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed 2022 Census Bureau stats on interstate migration and found that California departures shrank vs. 2021, while new residents from other states increased. It’s a small break in the “exodus” pattern that helped create the state’s first population shrinkage in recorded history.
Here’s the executive summary: Nationally, 5% more Americans made interstate relocations last year vs. 2021. But California exits to other states fell 3% while arrivals grew 10%.
Let’s get to the details …
Ex-Californians down
California lost more residents in 2022 to elsewhere in the US than any other state – 817,669. The state was followed by New York at 545,598, Texas at 494,077, and Florida at 489,905.
But California’s outflow shrank by 23,396 in a year. Only New York had a bigger drop (25,443) of the 16 states where exits declined. The California outflow drop was just a 3% dip, the 38th-best performance. The biggest dips, percentage-wise, were in Wyoming and Alaska, which both were off 23%.
Conversely, Texas had the largest increase in outflow at 46,714, then South Carolina at 37,466 and Oregon at 32,366. The largest jumps in exits, percentage-wise, were found in Maine (84%), Utah (38%) and Vermont (34%).
New Golden Staters up
California took in 475,803 from other states, trailing only Florida at 738,969, and Texas at 668,338.
California arrivals grew by 42,401 from 2021, growth topped only by Texas at 76,943, and Florida at 64,229.
Those California additions equaled 10% growth, No. 15 among the states. Connecticut was No. 1 at 36%, then Minnesota at 25% and Alabama at 20%.
There were 21 states with fewer arrivals topped by New Jersey, off 20,805, then Maryland, off 20,232, and Colorado, off 20,155. The biggest percentage drops were in Hawaii, off 22%, Vermont, off 18% and Maryland, off 13%.
The gap shrinks
When you compare inbound vs. outbound, California had a net migration outflow of 341,866 – the largest gap in the nation. Next came New York (244,137) and Illinois (115,719).
Meanwhile, Florida had the largest net inflow at 249,064, then Texas at 174,261 and North Carolina at 82,160.
But California’s relocation gap shrank 65,797 in a year – the biggest improvement among the states. Next was Connecticut (46,542) and Florida (43,901).
On the flip side, New Jersey’s gap grew by 42,182, the biggest among the states, then Utah (up 40,024) and Maryland (up 39,981).
Longer-term
Interstate moves became more popular in the pandemic era with 10% more Americans crossing borders in 2022 vs. the 2015-19 average – years before we knew what a coronavirus was.
California departures grew 24% in this timeframe, the sixth-largest jump. The top five have a western bent: Oregon at 39%, Washington at 30%, Idaho at 26%, Utah at 25% and Colorado at 24%.
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Outflows dropped the most, percentage-wise, in Alaska (off 23%), then Mississippi (off 19%) and Connecticut (off 17%).
At the same time, California arrivals dropped 6% in the pandemic era. The state’s strict business limitations to fight the coronavirus didn’t help.
Bigger drops were found only in Maryland (off 13%), Utah (off 9%), Oregon (off 8%) and Iowa (off 7%). Connecticut’s 78% arrival growth was No. 1, followed by Florida (28%) and South Carolina (26%).
Bottom line
California’s modest relocation gap contraction doesn’t change long-running themes.
Outs: You may not believe the math, but California has above-average population retention on a national scale.
Consider that 2.5% of Americans switched states last year. Then note that California’s 2022 outflow equaled 2.1% of its population. Only eight states had a smaller share of its residents leave in 2022 topped by Texas, Michigan and Ohio at 1.7%. And Florida had a 2.3% exit rate.
Ins: California’s ability to draw new residents as a share of the population ranks dead last. Yes, no other state is more unpopular.
California arrivals were 1.2% of all residents. The next lowest attraction rate was New York at 1.5%, and Michigan at 1.6%.
Now I’m not sure what California could learn from the most attractive states, by this yardstick – D.C. at 9.8%, and Alaska and Wyoming at 5%. Maybe the better attractiveness of its main economic rivals might help offer lessons.
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Texas arrivals equaled 2.3% of its population, but that’s a sub-par No. 40 ranking. However, Florida’s 3.4% attraction rate was the 19th best in the nation.
Or look at the California migration issue this way. Imagine if California relocations ran at the national average results for 2022, interstate moves equalling 2.5% of the population.
The Golden State would have had 146,000 more residents exit last year – and 622,000 additional arrivals.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
