Two mass shootings. Brazen smash-and-grab thefts at luxury retailers. A violent robbery on the side of a busy freeway.
In 2023, crime made headlines, fueled Facebook fights — and was an important story for residents and business owners all over Southern California.
Reported violent crime in the state is at its highest since roughly 2008, and California consistently outpaces national trends as violent crime has increased since 2020 while nationally it has started to decline, according to federal data.
While data from the past few years has shown an increase in violent crime and retail theft, some experts and law enforcement leaders had differing opinions on what may change — or stay the same — in 2024.
California an outlier for violent crime
In general, across the state, violent crime had been steadily declining since a historic high in the early 1990s. Numbers began to stagnate, then slowly increase, around 2014. Trends for homicides and rape have followed national trends with an uptick during the pandemic years, but declines in 2022. However, some specific types of violent crime have ticked up since the pandemic: Aggravated assault, retail theft, and motor-vehicle theft are all on the rise.
In 2022, California averaged 499.5 reported violent crimes per 100,000 people, while the U.S. was at 380.7 per 100,000. Although California has mostly matched national violent crime trends since 2014, there has been a widening gap in recent years, which an analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California attributed primarily to a rise in aggravated assault.
“We have experienced some of the most unusual years for almost anyone alive,” said Magnus Lofstrom, policy director of criminal justice and a senior fellow at the institute. “Aggravated assault is definitely what’s on my radar, definitely more than any other crime.”
That analysis found that before the COVID-19 pandemic, aggravated assault was 6% higher in California than it was in the rest of the country. However, in 2022, aggravated assaults were 24% higher in the state.
Aggravated assaults and retail crime have become major sticking points for some politicians and law enforcement representatives labeling Southern California as a crime hub. In a televised debate earlier this year, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis claimed that California residents were fleeing the state in droves because public safety is “catastrophic.” Former L.A. mayoral candidate Rick Caruso said, during a debate, that crime in the city was worse than it’s ever been.
From 2013 to 2022, aggravated assaults in Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties collectively rose from around 33,000 to more than 60,000, according to state data. Aggravated assaults using firearms nearly doubled, surpassing 14,000 reported crimes.
Broad data on crime in 2023 will likely become available sometime in the summer. For now, policy experts and departments are looking at preliminary data to monitor trends.
Lofstrom said that in 2024 factors like police staffing and the idea of community policing could have major impacts on some kinds of crimes. He also cited drug abuse, gang activity and fluctuations in the economy as possible factors in the popularity of retail theft.
“When we look back on this year, we’re not seeing evidence that retail theft in L.A. is reversing that increasing trend, so that area is one where we could see improvement,” Lofstrom said. “When we look next year, we need to look at things like policing recruitment and retention challenges, and policing strategies.”
Will the root causes of retail theft change in 2024?
Some law enforcement leaders have insisted that some major factors involved in retail crime will not change in 2024.
It’s difficult to pin down specifically what has led to the increase. Whether or not violence occurred during an incident can impact how retail theft is reported. For example, if multiple crimes occur during a retail theft, such as assault, the most violent crime is the one that will be reported.
The Los Angeles Police Protective League — the union representing rank-and-file LAPD officers — laid blame for California’s retail-theft reputation partially with Los Angeles County’s “Pre-Arraignment Release Protocols.” Otherwise known as the zero-cash bail policy, it rolled out earlier this year. The policy has been the subject of significant criticism and an injunction filed against L.A. County in October, but a study from the Superior Court found that the policy has actually helped reduce re-arrests.
MORE INFORMATION: More San Gabriel Valley cities back effort to stop zero-bail policy in LA County
“The consequence of the policy has led to more smash-and-grab robberies across the city,” the Protective League said in an August statement, “and suspects become repeat offenders when incidents are charged as misdemeanors (instead of felonies).”
Riverside police Chief Larry Gonzalez specifically mentioned Proposition 47, a ballot measure passed by California voters in 2014 that lowered some property crimes valued less than $950 to a misdemeanor, and classified some drug charges as misdemeanors as well. Gonzalez credited Proposition 47 with an increase in repeat offenders that are arrested by his officers again and again.
“For us, there hasn’t been in a huge spike in violent crime, but the property crime is what we continue to see skyrocket in communities,” Gonzalez said. “People are just very brazen, they take what they want and walk out, whether it be a Home Depot or a Walmart.”
Gonzalez’ position was echoed by Adam Bercovici, a retired LAPD sergeant who has a private-security company. Bercovici said that when crime policies are reversed or weakened, people in criminal circles will use that to their advantage.
“The sentencing structure is so that people who do these things understand that they may not get a hard sentence,” Berovici said. “It’s a crime of opportunity, and of risk versus reward.”
Gonzalez agreed that looking forward, many in law enforcement see repeat offenders as a possible cause of rising crime.
“I think the issue is that it’s a revolving door in the jail system right now,” he said.
There is not significant proof, though, the zero-cash bail policy had a real impact on arrests in Los Angeles. According to data released by Los Angeles County Superior Court in October, less than 3% of more than 5,000 people booked for a crime in the first three weeks of the month re-offended after their release.
Many law enforcement agencies, including the LAPD and the LA County Sheriff’s Department, have established task forces looking to clamp down on retail theft. LASD reported in October that the department’s task force had arrested 89 people for retail theft in just five weeks, and recovered $370,000 in stolen goods.
LAPD data found that in the year ending in October, robbery decreased by 4.2%, and motor-vehicle theft decreased by 4.5%. In 2022, according to the Protective League, California saw a 28.7% jump in retail crime.
There are positive trends.
Larceny theft has remained relatively flat compared to 2013, from 252,997 to 250,794. Shoplifting and purse-snatching has been nearly cut in half.
Police departments say they remain focused despite challenges
Gonzalez said that even with retention and hiring challenges, his officers remain positive, and he does not see a loss in morale having an impact on police work.
“These guys don’t worry about how long someone will stay in jail,” he said. “They aren’t demoralized. We’re still constantly booking people in jail.”
Changes in this year’s trends are very possible. The California Highway Patrol has received several hundred million dollars to bolster retail-crime prevention, and the agency has arrested more than 1,000 people.
Some trends, like a decrease in young people committing violent crime, have given researchers hope.
Lofstrom was clear, though — researchers don’t have a crystal ball.
“Crime, and crime statistics, are functions of so many things,” Lofstrom said. “We have to think about factors that can help with predictions.”
