The first in a wave of storm systems set to douse Southern California is expected to arrive late Wednesday, Jan. 31, and early Thursday, bringing with it some heavy downpours and possible flooding.
Relatively clear skies and warm temperatures early in the week will be short-lived as the system makes its way down from Northern California, said National Weather Service Meteorologist Lisa Phillips. The system, referred to as a Pineapple Express, follows similar patterns of El Niño, carrying heavy precipitation from the tropical Pacific — specifically from around Hawaii — though whether the storm was caused by the El Niño weather pattern was not known on Tuesday.
This year, El Niño is forecast to reach the most significant level since 2015-2016, which saw the warmest winter on record across the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
A second round of storm systems will make its way over the area on Sunday, packing more of a punch than the first round and continuing through at least Tuesday, Phillips said. Estimates on how much rain the region could see next week were not yet available.
“The general timing for the next big wave is from Sunday through Tuesday, with the potential for showers to last past then and to produce more rainfall than this system, NWS meteorologist Brian Adams said.
The first system will arrive first over Los Angles County late Wednesday, marked by humid weather and increased wind speeds of around 30-40 mph and gusts of around 50 mph in the mountains, Phillips said. The heaviest showers will follow in the morning and carry on through Thursday with around an inch to two inches of rain set to drop over the county, with the mountains receiving around two to five inches.
“We do have some concerns of flooding closer to the mountains and foothills, minor creek and roadway flooding,” Phillips said on Tuesday. “For now, the National Weather Service is not planning to issue any flood watches in LA County.”
Further down the coast in Orange County, the storm is expected to arrive before sunrise on Thursday, with heavy, consistent showers lingering throughout the day, said Adams. Around one to two inches is expected to drop over much of the county, similar to Los Angeles, with mountain areas receiving closer to two to three inches.
“This isn’t a storm that’s going to park over our region,” Adams said. “Its more of an ‘atmospheric fire hose’ dousing the region while keeping its pace.”
A flood watch will be in effect in Orange County from Thursday morning through Friday morning along with a high wind watch and high surf advisory. Waves of four feet to eight feet will be possible, Adams said.
Emergency responders are keeping an eye on the forecasts.
“We’re monitoring the figures from National Weather Service, but so far nothing that requires us to deploy any additional resources at this point,” said Orange County Fire Authority Capt. Thanh Nguyen.
Joanne Hubble, who has seen plenty of natural disasters in her decades as a resident of Modjeska Canyon, had already prepared her home for the chance of flooding earlier this week.
“I’ve got sandbags and everything here is ready for the storm,” Hubble said. “We were told its not going to be as strong as we thought, only about one to two inches of rain expected.”
Hubble said despite the storm’s dwindling anticipated strength, it’s better to be prepared for disaster.
In the Inland Empire, the rain was not anticipated to pour as consistently as in Orange and Los Angeles counties, with more scattered showers dropping around and inch to an inch and a half of rain, Adams said.
Up in the mountains, the storm was expected to drop around two to three inches of rain.
A significant amount of snowfall will also be seen in the mountains, with the snow level starting at 6,500 to 7,000 feet on Thursday, Adams said. By afternoon, the snow level is expected to drop to about 6,000 feet. The level should continue falling to about 4,500 feet by Friday.
Around one to three inches of snow is expected at 4,500 feet, climbing up to two feet at above 8,000 feet, Adams said.
With last year’s historic blizzard in the San Bernardino Mountains, first responders were monitoring precipitation levels and preparing for the chance of flooding or other weather-related issues around the region’s coastal and mountain areas.
“We’re playing a reactive role for now based on the information we’re getting from the National Weather Service,” said Eric Sherwin, a spokesperson for the San Bernardino County Fire Department. “For now, the storm projections are not crossing our threshold of concern and we’re focusing on preparation prior to the storm’s arrival, making sure storm drains and channels are clear.”
“We don’t have a single 24-hour period so far that need additional resources,” he said.
One Lake Arrowhead resident who endured last year’s snowstorm, Tami Lundberg, said she’s not taking any chances this year and decided to stay with family in Redondo Beach for at least the weekend.
“Last winter was a nightmare I never want to repeat,” she said. “Even if it’s not the big storm we thought it was going to be, we just don’t want to take the risk.”
The bulk of the storm is expected to run its course on Thursday, with some light showers carrying into Friday morning, Phillips said.
By Saturday, skies should be relatively clear with temperature slightly rising into the high 50s and low 60s for much of the region ahead of the next storm on Sunday.
